The January blowout was no doubt mostly a function of record warm weather enticing shoppers out of their homes in much greater numbers than normal for the month.

An aggressive effort by business to pass through higher energy prices will probably largely fail as an increasingly strapped consumer proves resistant.

The economy seems to have a decent amount of momentum at the moment.

The information in the report is considered dated because the current focus is on the extent of the damage to the nation's energy and trade infrastructure and therefore on the lasting nature of the effect Hurricane Katrina.

Combined with the fact that today's retail sales data point to a surge in July personal consumption, this means that the consumer entered Q3 with substantial momentum.

I don't see the comments from these two representing a change in the Fed's policy. Everyone knows that rates this low can't last, but the same issues remain -- 'When do you raise rates? What is the right timing'?

Housing has peaked and we're expecting some moderate weakening in 2006.

Housing has peaked and we're expecting some moderate weakening in 2006. It's starting to turn into a buyers' market, with fewer buyers chasing more homes at these mortgage rates.

Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future?

In the third quarter, trade will resume its role as a weight on growth, but we are still likely to see a robust G.D.P. picture.